Bitcoin Held Up After a Hawkish FOMC. That Is Not Decoupling Yet
Bitcoin did not make a new low when U.S. equities sold off sharply.
That is worth paying attention to. But I would not call it decoupling yet.
On July 29, the Federal Reserve voted 9 to 3 to hold its target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. Three members preferred a 25 basis point increase. The statement also said inflation remained above the 2% goal, in part because of supply shocks affecting areas such as energy.
Kiplinger's live coverage recorded a 1.7% decline in the Nasdaq, a 1.5% loss in the S&P 500, and a 2.2% decline in the Dow. Bitcoin did not show the same degree of panic. At 13:20 AEST on July 31, the Kraken public ticker showed BTC/USD at $64,288, about 1.5% above its $63,331 200-week moving average.
Relative strength is an observed price behavior.
Decoupling is a relationship that needs repeated evidence.
First test: how much of the price structure has recovered?
Three levels define the current structure:
| Level | Value | What it tests |
|---|---|---|
| 200-week moving average | $63,331 | Whether long-term support is holding |
| Short-Term Holder Cost Basis | $67,998 | Whether recent buyers return to break-even |
| Power-law floor price | $69,167 | Whether price returns above its long-run statistical floor |
Bitcoin has held the lowest of these supports, but it remains below the other two.
This tells us that sellers have not forced another leg down. It does not tell us that buyers control the trend. Holding $63,331 confirms resilience. Reclaiming $67,998 would move recent buyers back toward break-even. Reclaiming $69,167 would put price back above the power-law model's statistical floor.
The recovery case becomes much stronger only if those steps happen in sequence.
Second test: ETF flows are positive, but still narrow
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $32.1 million of net inflows on July 29.
The total was positive, but the inflows were concentrated:
| July 29 flow | Amount |
|---|---|
| IBIT | +$89.8M |
| All other products combined | -$57.7M |
| Net total | +$32.1M |
Without IBIT's $89.8 million inflow, the rest of the product group was still in net outflow.
On July 30, Farside's product-level table showed another $49.7 million of total net inflows, although IBIT's entry had not yet been reported. Across the two days, the total was $81.8 million, or $40.9 million per day. Farside's full-sample daily average is $80.7 million, so the latest two-day average was only about half that level.
This buying may have helped support price. It is not enough to show that institutional demand has broadly returned.
I would look for three things:
- Inflows spread beyond IBIT.
- Net inflows persist for several trading days.
- The five-day average rises above $80.7 million.
A positive total can provide local support. Broad participation is stronger evidence of demand recovery.
Third test: regulatory direction is not the same as daily demand
Clearer asset classification and regulatory boundaries can reduce long-run uncertainty for institutions. But the SEC Crypto Task Force written-input page still contains active debate over custody, secondary-market disclosure, asset classification, and trading structure.
These are unedited submissions from outside organizations and individuals, not statements of the SEC's own position. The SEC also warns that the page's generated summaries are not a substitute for reading the original submissions.
Regulatory progress belongs in a long-term valuation framework.
It does not explain a single day of relative strength, and it cannot be translated directly into sustained spot buying.
Three scenarios for the next confirmation
This is a confirmation framework based on current price levels, cost bases, and fund flows. It is not a historical backtest.
| Scenario | Conditions and interpretation |
|---|---|
| Bullish confirmation | Price: hold $63,331, then reclaim $67,998 and $69,167 ETF: at least 3 positive trading days, at least 2 products buying, five-day average above $80.7M Macro: Bitcoin avoids a new cycle low while yields and equity volatility remain elevated View: resilience develops into trend repair, and the decoupling hypothesis gains initial support |
| Neutral range | Price: trade between $63,331 and $67,998 ETF: positive flows, but daily average below $80.7M and demand remains concentrated Macro: risk-asset volatility fades View: selling pressure is exhausted, but new demand is still weak |
| Bearish failure | Price: lose $63,331 and retest $58,524 ETF: return to consecutive net outflows Macro: equities keep falling or rate expectations rise further View: relative strength fails, and Bitcoin continues to behave like a liquid risk asset |
It is easy to interpret one candle that refuses to fall as evidence that investors are rushing in.
The July 29 data points to a narrower explanation. IBIT's buying offset selling across the rest of the product group, leaving only $32.1 million of net inflows.
Bitcoin held a major long-term support after a hawkish FOMC decision and a sharp equity selloff. Selling pressure appears weaker, and selective buying is emerging. The next test is whether demand spreads beyond IBIT and whether price can reclaim $67,998 and then $69,167.
The resilience is real.
The decoupling is not confirmed.
NFA, DYOR