Posts tagged "on-chain"

Price broke below the power-law model's floor price and has stayed there for 56 days. Across three comparable historical cycles, only one — 2022 — ever actually broke it.

Three on-chain cost-basis lines sit 15-23% below current price. Every one of the last three full cycles broke below all three at the bottom — will this one go as deep?

One model tracks days from bear bottom to halving. Another tracks the fixed duration of bull and bear phases themselves. Neither knows the other exists — yet they converge on the same quarter.

Across three cycles, Bitcoin's bear-market low has landed 504-511 days before the next halving, almost every time. Run that forward and the next accumulation window falls on November 9-16, 2026.